Abstract: The Signals Among the Noise That Will Indicate France’s Exit from the European Union

With the Brexit referendum, the Trump administration and the seemingly more likely Marine Le Pen victory in the upcoming French elections, My research would examine the relationship between France and her involvement in the European Union. More specifically, I will examine all sorts of data about European countries, including economic pressures, immigrant populations, and voting behavior, to determine the risk factors for France to vote, and perhaps even to leave, the European Union. Perhaps I will even be able to calculate the chance of a Frexit.

After hopefully determining which factors are effective in helping predict whether France will vote to leave the European Union, as well as factors that would also predict the outcome of that vote, I will analyze and synthesize those factors to create a method to make a prediction. Currently, people study the implications of Brexit for the geopolitics and security of Europe, but not necessarily the underlying factors that could have helped identified the outcome, Brexit, before it happened. The ability to forecast the outcome would be very useful to better prepare for the consequences. The fallout of Brexit included lots of turbulence in the markets; it would have been very helpful to be able to have an inkling of an idea beforehand. First, I will deduce the risk factors that led to the Brexit decision and also the factors that led to the Donald Trump presidency, as well determine what’s contributing to a possible election of Marine Le Pen. Then I will perform an analysis of the data and create a methodology.