Summary of Ecological forecasting

After many papers, chapters of Ecological Forecasting, hours spent learning about Bayesian statistics and ecological forecasting, I have completed my work on ecological forecasting. Originally, I had planned on creating my own ecological forecast but after a good amount of reading and learning about forecasts, I quickly realized that I lacked the tools and understanding to create one of my own. Unfortunately I never got to go sampling in the field during my Monroe but may still go when I get back to school.

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Ecological Forecast: update 2

Hi all,

So I definitely meant to post another update way before now but anyway, I have had a productive few weeks. I might go sampling with my advisor on this Thursday, so I’ll save my final post for late Thursday or Friday. Other than sampling, I have spent a few hours learning various functions on R and going through the activities that are related to chapters in Ecological Forecasting. This has been a great step into understanding how to do an ecological forecast and understanding the math and skills necessary.

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Ecological Forecast: Update 1

In the abstract, I wrote that at the end of the summer I would have created an ecological forecast but after reading the first few chapters of the book Ecological Forecasting, by Michael Dietze on ecological forecasting, I have come to realize that I underestimated how challenging that would be. After realizing that I lack much of the understanding to create this forecast, I have decided to focus on learning the statistics necessary to create one.

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An ecological forecast predicts how an ecosystem and its parts will change over time using information about the environment, climate change and biology. This research will produce an ecological forecast for Eubranchipus vernalis (eastern fairy shrimp) for the population in the James River rock pools surrounding Belle Island. The research will begin with readings of two reference papers (Petchey et al. 2015 and Dietze 2017) along with the close study of Ecological Forecasting by Dietze. Samples of the rock pools will be collected throughout the summer for the ecological forecast. Various models will be chosen to represent the data in the best way possible. The completed forecast can be used for various reasons, such as in support of research projects. This will be completed with the assistance of Dr. Pantel and in coordination with her research on the James river rock pools.